7/6/2023 0 Comments Polls compare anything![]() ![]() READ MORE: How to read the polls in 2020 and avoid the mistakes of 2016 During the 2016 presidential election, a few state-based polling firms predicted larger leads in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan for then-Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton over her opponent, Republican candidate Donald Trump. Recent national elections have reminded us how problematic it is when we think of polls as forecasts of the future rather than a glimpse at where people stand at a given moment in time. But it is important to recognize the limitations of surveys, in addition to the strengths. At their best, polls can empower the broader public to help influence crucial decisions. Rather than conduct a census of every single person to find out where the public stands on an issue or candidate, surveys sample opinions and can distill information that helps us better gauge our world. With control of Congress at stake in this year’s midterm elections, polls gauging whether people favor Republicans or Democrats are being closely watched and analyzed at every juncture. In Kansas, voters surprised political watchers when they rejected the state’s attempt to restrict abortion access by a more dramatic margin than earlier polls had suggested. ![]() At the state level, polls and primary results indeed have sent people in some parts of the country wondering how to read surveys. Like every election year, the 2022 midterms have released a riptide of numbers as pundits and voters alike try to grasp their significance. They can be used to drum up support for campaigns and reveal how closely aligned (or far apart) the general public is on consequential Supreme Court rulings or presidential policies. Polls are powerful – they can influence emotions and shape political fortunes. ![]()
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